Hello Hedge Schoolers,
Have you ever found yourself between worlds? In times of transition, we step into liminality. A time where the world of old is making way for a new world. During this time, we find ourselves awash with confusion and doubt. The pull of the old way, comfortable and known, wrestles with the light and growth of the new way. A mist covers the path ahead.
How do we navigate a path if we can't see the next step?
In Roman times, the god of Janus, a two-faced god who looked back and forward, held the keys here. Janus, the god of doors, gates and, transitions, can provide great insight during an evolutionary phase in our lives. Whether it is in work, family life, or personal growth, standing still and looking both backward and forward allows us to take stock of the best of the past and the brightness of the future. In Futures Thinking, the Janus effect is a key component of Three Horizons Thinking.
Three Horizons Thinking
The ‘Three Horizons’ framework is a foresight tool that can help us to structure our thinking about the future in ways that spark innovation. - Daniel Christian Wahl
The first horizon is the world we are transitioning from. Our business as usual. Practices, methodologies, habits, ways of being, that have served us well until now.
What are the key components of your current Horizon 1?
What are the practices that have served you well until now?
A personal example of mine was drinking alcohol. In the land of Oz, I was considered a socially acceptable drinker. Whatever that means. Drinking was part of the social fabric of my life.
It served the purpose of state shifting. It greased the wheel of social interaction for a shy kid. It helped to quieten a busy mind.
Until it didn't.
Until I felt greater anxiety with one drink in me. Until I felt I needed more to reach the state shift. Until I felt socially self-conscious with a drink in me. Until it muddied my mind. Until I felt the physical effects of excess.
This sparked the desire for a new world. A new way of being. A new horizon. Our pain and trauma are often sources of great innovation. The moments where we put our foot down and decide to make a change. To seek a new horizon.
This horizon is known as Horizon 3. The dream of a new future.
What is the world that you are moving towards?
What are the practices you seek to shift?
My Horizon 3 was a world free from booze. It was a dream of more energy, clarity, presence, and new experiences. It was a world of improved health and wellbeing.
When the world of old starts to fail us, we dream of the new world. The new horizon. But the process of moving towards that horizon is a tumultuous time. It is a time of disruption. In the Three Horizons framework, this is the building of a bridge. A time of rapid discovery and experimentation. A time of rapid learning and growth.
Horizon 2 is the building of the bridge between worlds, with the Janus effect allowing you to assess the planks you lay as you walk to ensure they are building the bridge in the right direction.
The Janus Effect and Horizon 2
Growth is measured in retrospect. By looking back, we can gauge how far we have traveled. Gauge how much we have grown. With the Three Horizons framework, looking back allows us to see what elements of the old we wish to keep. There is no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. These elements used to serve us so we need to gauge whether we build upon them or discard them. The elements we decide to keep will be brought with us.
For me, catching up with my friends had revolved around meeting at a bar. I didn’t want to get rid of this. I wanted to see bands with my mates and be present at social occasions. This was non-negotiable.
The elements that are not serving us serve as experiments to run. States to disrupt. How we get from Horizon 1 to Horizon 3. This is the bastion of Horizon 2. It is a period of experimentation with the Janus effect helping to classify whether our experiment is simply supporting Horizon 1 or disrupting Horizon 1.
Our experiments in Horizon 2 can be classified into two categories.
(H2-) Experiments that serve to reinforce the Horizon 1 world
(H2+) Experiments that serve to reinforce the Horizon 3 world and disrupt Horizon 1
To bring this down from a conceptual model, let me apply it to my previous example of change. The years between making the decision to quit and quitting alcohol were rife with experimentation. I tried variations of abstinence, drink choice, and activities. Below are some classification examples:
(H2-)
Only drinking on the weekends.
Every second drink a non-alcoholic beverage
(H2+)
Febfast, Dry July & Octsober
Counting the number of days in a year I drank
The H2- experiments didn't change the behaviour, they only delayed it. I found that I made up for the lost time when I did. The H2+ experiments gave me a real glimpse of the clarity that life without booze would provide. The accountability of counting provided a gradual decrease over time.
Horizon 3 is now where I call home and it has been a blessing.
Applying the Janus effect
Janus is a two-headed god that can provide the duality of looking forward and backward to ensure that our path to transformation is being laid in the right direction. Horizon 1 is the old world. Horizon 3 the new. Horizon 2 is where all the growing and learning happens. This is where we try to disrupt our old patterns. Classifying our experiments using the Janus effect allows us to see if we are simply reinforcing the old ways or are we truly blazing a path forward to a new way of being. The Three Horizons Thinking framework allows us to set a path for transformation and helps provide guardrails for moving towards the new change. The below video provides a great introduction to the model when applied to a system or organisation.
Till next week,
Steve
References and rabbitholes
Transformation advice from Janus, the two faced God